Battle for Avdiivka could decide the Ukraine war
While the world is focused on Israel and the Gaza war, the war in Ukraine grinds on. Russian leader Vladimir Putin gave a brief press conference during his China trip and from that we can conclude the following: firstly that the Russians are concerned about the use of the US ATACMS missile against Russian forces, and secondly that the Russians are worried about the arrival, probably around January, although no one is certain, of F-16 fighter aircraft. The Russians understand that the F-16s will challenge Russian air superiority, at least to a degree, and complicate their operations. Meanwhile, on the ground, the Russians are making some headway against Avdiivka but the manpower and hardware cost is very high. In effect, the war has changed dimensionally. The Russians proved that its army could repel a Ukrainian offensive focused in the Zaphorize direction and inflict heavy casualties on Ukraine. However, just now that the Russians have started going on the offensive attacking strategic cities like Avdiivka, it is not so easy. The same points about the land and air battle in Ukraine made by Putin were also made by his Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu in a conference with Russian army, air force and navy top brass. The MGM-140 is a tactical ballistic missile with a range of around 300 kilometers. The missiles were secretly shipped to Ukraine and first used against a large depot and airfield in Berdyansk. Thank you for registering! An account was already registered with this email. Please check your inbox for an authentication link. Unconfirmed reports say that the missile destroyed a significant number of Ka-54 attack helicopters that the Russians had been using in their operations against the Ukrainians in the Bradley Square area. An Army Tactical Missile System test launch in New Mexico, December 14, 2021. Photo: John Hamilton The Russians have relied on missile defenses and GPS jamming to defeat Western-supplied missiles. The ATACMS models sent to Ukraine were older types that rely on inertial navigation (INS) platforms and do not use GPS. INS units are made up of electrically-powered gyroscopes and don’t need to connect to outside satellites or radio navigation systems. In practice, this means that jamming won’t work because there is nothing to jam. It is not known whether Russia had any air defenses protecting the Berdyansk area, and if they did have them, whether they fired them at the ATACMS missile. It is surprising that the Russians kept their attack helicopters so close to the zone of operations, where they were vulnerable to weapons such as Stormshadow, HIMARS and now ATACMS. The Russians are not without their own nasty weapons. One of them, now being used in the assault on Avdiivka, is the TOS-1A, often described as a flamethrower. The TOS weapon now being used is a multiple-launch rocket system that has a thermobaric warhead and acts as a “fuel-air explosive.” A fuel-air explosive creates a cloud of fine particles of fuel that then explodes, removing all oxygen from the impacted area and then burns, rather like napalm does. In fact, the Russians refer to these weapons as a “wall of napalm.” The Russians may choose to ignore growing casualties and press on as they attempt to straighten the border of the Donbas and secure the Zaphorize direction. As is now well known, Ukraine is running short on manpower. It is trying to step up drafting men “of military age” (now up to 60) to fill the gaps, but many are unwilling to fight. Ukraine has reported it has arrested thousands of young people trying to get across Ukraine’s borders and escape conscription. How many succeeded isn’t known. Ukraine has also pressured European countries, particularly Poland, to repatriate draft-age Ukrainians. The Poles and others have refused. Ukraine also may face collapsing Western support in terms of finance and military supplies. For the first time, there is pushback. Europe is already in a recession and has drained its stockpiles. The US is heading in the same direction. Speaking in China, Putin said that he is ready for talks with Ukraine’s leaders, but Ukraine must repeal a law that blocks President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials from engaging in negotiations. Zelensky is at risk of losing his Western support. Image: Twitter Sign up for one of our free newsletters Putin’s remarks can be read in two ways, either challenging Ukraine to come to the negotiating table or illustrating why Ukraine will not. There are a number of interlocutors, other than any from the United States, who are willing to host peace talks, most notably China and Turkey. Turkey is relevant in part because it is also a NATO member, but NATO has not proposed any talks with Russia and has cut off Russia from virtually all dialogue. Turkey, therefore, would be acting outside of the existing NATO consensus, althoug
ChinaGoSmart CGS 
While the world is focused on Israel and the Gaza war, the war in Ukraine grinds on.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin gave a brief press conference during his China trip and from that we can conclude the following: firstly that the Russians are concerned about the use of the US ATACMS missile against Russian forces, and secondly that the Russians are worried about the arrival, probably around January, although no one is certain, of F-16 fighter aircraft.
The Russians understand that the F-16s will challenge Russian air superiority, at least to a degree, and complicate their operations. Meanwhile, on the ground, the Russians are making some headway against Avdiivka but the manpower and hardware cost is very high.
In effect, the war has changed dimensionally. The Russians proved that its army could repel a Ukrainian offensive focused in the Zaphorize direction and inflict heavy casualties on Ukraine.
However, just now that the Russians have started going on the offensive attacking strategic cities like Avdiivka, it is not so easy.
The same points about the land and air battle in Ukraine made by Putin were also made by his Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu in a conference with Russian army, air force and navy top brass.
The MGM-140 is a tactical ballistic missile with a range of around 300 kilometers. The missiles were secretly shipped to Ukraine and first used against a large depot and airfield in Berdyansk.
Unconfirmed reports say that the missile destroyed a significant number of Ka-54 attack helicopters that the Russians had been using in their operations against the Ukrainians in the Bradley Square area.
The Russians have relied on missile defenses and GPS jamming to defeat Western-supplied missiles. The ATACMS models sent to Ukraine were older types that rely on inertial navigation (INS) platforms and do not use GPS.
INS units are made up of electrically-powered gyroscopes and don’t need to connect to outside satellites or radio navigation systems. In practice, this means that jamming won’t work because there is nothing to jam.
It is not known whether Russia had any air defenses protecting the Berdyansk area, and if they did have them, whether they fired them at the ATACMS missile. It is surprising that the Russians kept their attack helicopters so close to the zone of operations, where they were vulnerable to weapons such as Stormshadow, HIMARS and now ATACMS.
The Russians are not without their own nasty weapons. One of them, now being used in the assault on Avdiivka, is the TOS-1A, often described as a flamethrower.
The TOS weapon now being used is a multiple-launch rocket system that has a thermobaric warhead and acts as a “fuel-air explosive.” A fuel-air explosive creates a cloud of fine particles of fuel that then explodes, removing all oxygen from the impacted area and then burns, rather like napalm does. In fact, the Russians refer to these weapons as a “wall of napalm.”
The Russians may choose to ignore growing casualties and press on as they attempt to straighten the border of the Donbas and secure the Zaphorize direction. As is now well known, Ukraine is running short on manpower.
It is trying to step up drafting men “of military age” (now up to 60) to fill the gaps, but many are unwilling to fight. Ukraine has reported it has arrested thousands of young people trying to get across Ukraine’s borders and escape conscription. How many succeeded isn’t known. Ukraine has also pressured European countries, particularly Poland, to repatriate draft-age Ukrainians. The Poles and others have refused.
Ukraine also may face collapsing Western support in terms of finance and military supplies. For the first time, there is pushback. Europe is already in a recession and has drained its stockpiles. The US is heading in the same direction.
Speaking in China, Putin said that he is ready for talks with Ukraine’s leaders, but Ukraine must repeal a law that blocks President Volodymyr Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials from engaging in negotiations.
Putin’s remarks can be read in two ways, either challenging Ukraine to come to the negotiating table or illustrating why Ukraine will not. There are a number of interlocutors, other than any from the United States, who are willing to host peace talks, most notably China and Turkey.
Turkey is relevant in part because it is also a NATO member, but NATO has not proposed any talks with Russia and has cut off Russia from virtually all dialogue. Turkey, therefore, would be acting outside of the existing NATO consensus, although that too may be on the precipice of change.
Bakhmut was the first major defeat of the Ukrainian army. The failed Ukrainian counteroffensive counts as the second defeat. Whether Ukraine can withstand a third defeat at Avdiivka is not known – it probably can fight for a time but the cost may be fatal.
What is known is that Zelensky is facing a crisis that will grow as the fighting expands in Avdiivka and elsewhere.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Asia Times is republishing it with permission.
